Wednesday, January 29, 2014

This Time Is Different:

More Money Was Invested in Emerging Markets from 2005-2013 than in the Rest of Recorded Time Combined

Chart from NY Times

This shows that those who think this is "just another EM cycle", you buy 'em when they're out of favor and beaten up and sell them when they're rich is missing the big picture.  The flood of money into EM in 2005-07, taking a break during the GFC, then picking up where they left off in 2010 through 2013, was multiples of anything ever seen before.  Public equity, private equity, RE, debt and FDI gushed in EM on a massive scale.  Which is why I'm not bucking consensus and looking for "entry points" to jump back in.  For various reasons but also simply because the size of investment was so astonishing, I'm guessing we're in the early innings of an EM downcycle.

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