Monday, May 5, 2014

More Wage Inflation Increases Risk For Stocks

The following is from McAlinden Research:

The US labor market continues to heal, with payrolls up and unemployment down, paving the way for stronger wages for blue collar America. Average hourly earnings for production and non-supervisory employees rose in April by just 0.1% in April from the month before, but they went up 2.2% compared to a year ago, well above the 1.3% low posted in October 2012 and comfortably above the current 1.5% inflation rate. While low by historical standards, it's the direction that matters and business surveys point to further wage gains. The NFIB Small Business Compensation Index, for instance, just reached a cycle high. Moreover, most job growth in this cycle has been in low-paying services, but economists are now forecasting stronger job growth in higher-higher paying manufacturing jobs.

SMALL BUSINESS COMPENSATION RATES ARE LEADING BLUE-COLLAR WAGE GAINS



Source: Bloomberg, McAlinden Research

 

No comments: