Friday, April 4, 2014

QE by ECB: Great News for Stocks and the Beginning of the End

It’s all rumors and chit chat at this point – anyone’s guess as to whether Draghi will hit the QE panic button.  If he does, two things are very likely.  One, European stocks but also most other markets will march higher.  Traders don’t overthink things.  US QE = higher US stocks, ergo European QE will = higher European stocks.  Justified or not, if it happens, don’t be short.  Two, I call it the QE panic button because that’s what it will indicate.  Draghi will do this if he feels he has no other options and that Europe is slipping into stagnation and deflation.  Given that Europe has done little in the way of genuine growth enhancing reforms, the demographics are grim, and the German’s insist on doing all the savings and exporting for the whole Euro-zone, I think the stagnation/deflation scenario is the most likely one, regardless of what Draghi does.  European stocks, especially the “countries formerly known as PIIGS”, have had a lovely rally but it’s a mystery to me why investors believe there will be a strong profit recovery and the idea of excellent long term profit growth (especially absent Chinese super-growth) is absurd.


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